How has the AK Party become the ruling party?

We are about to enter the last turnout of the last three elections. The Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which received 44 percent of the vote in the March 30 local elections despite charges of corruption, also maintained this success by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan being elected president with 51.8 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election.

The general election in June 2015 is the last phase of this three-stage struggle. In addition, no other election will be organized for the following four years. Having Ahmet Davutoğlu as prime minister has already started to signal that these four years could pass very differently. Turkey has to be reconstructed through its institutions and state-society relations, and the prime minister is aware of this requirement. Consequently, by the 2019 elections, it is highly probable that Turkey will have turned into a far more democratic and stable country where a constitutional system and inter-institutional relations are settled when compared to the present day.

As a result, we could presume that the AK Party will get the highest rate of votes and will probably receive beyond 50 percent of the vote in the 2019 elections. On the other hand, it is not very likely for a country like Turkey to complete structural reforms and a reconstruction process in only four years. In other words, the transformation process will also extend to the following period and could make the AK Party unrivaled in the 2023 elections. Though it is not easy to predict today, we can assume that the AK Party will at least remain "the greatest" party in that period as well.

It is true that estimating the future of politics is hard in countries like Turkey. However, the prediction we made here is realistic since experiences transcend politics. Politics is determined by the sociology of dynamism and handicaps of Islamic and secular circles. And society is much more predictable and changes more slowly when compared to politics. Likewise, the column I wrote just after the AK Party's first victory in 2002 also estimated that this party would win at least four successive elections. It has won two and now the third is approaching, the results of which are more or less clear already.

Obviously, this picture is depressing for some groups. As the ruling party, the AK Party has left its mark on Turkish politics, and seemingly, it is not very possible to change this for now. This is the case despite the deficiencies and mistakes of the government in many spheres. Moreover, it cannot be said that the Islamic segment of society, which forms the base of the party, and the new middle class flourishing around it, are unaware of or insensitive to those deficiencies and mistakes. On the contrary, people maintain support even though they know the points where the government is unsuccessful. This indicates that this is not only a political phenomenon, but rather can be understood by social factors.

Becoming the ruling party cannot be achieved by a party's own will. It can be said that this is historical determination. If the Republican regime had not limited the public sphere to such a degree, the AK Party would probably not have such power right now. Also, after 1980, religious people were not allowed in politics with their own identities by remaining at the central right. This case adopted tragicomic characteristic with the Feb. 28, 1997, coup. With the cooperation of the army and media, some imaginary religious people were made up, and their scandals were manipulated to influence public opinion. Meanwhile, the pressure on women who wear headscarves reached an unbearable level. Religious people were publicly insulted and marginalized.

However, the main factor maintaining the AK Party as the ruling power until now is the fact that the Islamic segment of society transformed all these experiences into a kind of catharsis dynamics. Today, the AK Party is the ruling party, but what created this is actually social change rather than its political power. For this reason, its rule will last at least for 10 more years.